Budget still leaves public health hundreds of millions of dollars short
New analysis by health economist Dr Jacqueline Cumming and economist Dr Bill Rosenberg suggests Budget 2026 leaves New Zealand’s public health system around $423 million short of the funding needed to maintain current services.
Writing in New Zealand Doctor, they found that while headline funding appears significant, it does not keep pace with rising costs, population growth and increasing demand for healthcare. As a result, hospitals, primary care and hauora Māori services are expected to remain under significant pressure.
The analysis estimates that operational funding would need to increase by around five per cent simply to maintain current levels of service. Instead, Budget 2026 provides an effective increase of just 3.8 per cent, leaving a funding gap of approximately $423 million once new spending commitments are taken into account.
The report also highlights that:
Hospital and specialist services funding is unlikely to keep up with cost and population pressures.
There is no explicit increase in funding for general practice and primary care, despite ongoing workforce shortages and access issues.
Some hauora Māori programmes lose funding, even as Māori continue to experience poorer health outcomes.
The authors conclude that the Budget does not "hold the line" for New Zealand's health system, let alone begin rebuilding it for the future.
This analysis reinforces what Kaitiaki Hauora has been saying for months: New Zealand cannot rebuild its health system while funding falls short of what is needed simply to maintain existing services. Until that funding gap is addressed, pressure on hospitals, general practice, hauora Māori services and the health workforce will continue to grow.
That is why Kaitiaki Hauora continues to call on the Government to:
Fund public health properly so everyone gets care when they need it.
Honour Te Tiriti by ensuring Māori lead on equity in the health system.
Keep healthcare public so care stays focused on people, not profit.